Reinvestment scenarios · appendix detail · Y6 EBITDA
12 of 300+ scenarios run to optimise capital allocation. Recommended: 8-market core + Spain (A+ES) — €106m raised (16+30+30+30). Reinvested month-by-month, ROMI-ranked, to NDP caps; where flat capital can't keep every month above buffer, base marketing is throttled to fit.
| Scenario | Capital raised (Y1+Y2+…) | Markets | Y6 EBITDA | MOIC @10× | Buffer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · current, no Spain | €106m (16+30+30+30) | DK RO FI SE IE ZA PT CA-AB | €72m | 6.8× | Clean |
| A-DK-MAX · current, DK to cap first | €106m (16+30+30+30) | A markets · DK force-filled from 2027 | €58m | 5.5× | Clean |
| A-DK5m · current, DK €5m + quiz/LS | €106m (16+30+30+30) | 8 markets · DK €5m · quiz+LS from start | €61m | 5.8× | Clean |
| A+ES · current + Spain | €106m (16+30+30+30) | A + Spain (ES) | €127m | 12.0× | Clean |
| B · current + UK, no Spain | €106m (16+30+30+30) | A markets + UK | €61m | 5.8× | Clean |
| B+ES · current + Spain + UK | €106m (16+30+30+30) | A+ES markets + UK | €113m | 10.7× | Clean |
| D · aggressive capital (Max TAM) | €166m (16+50+50+50) | All 18, ROMI-ranked | €305m | 18.4× | Dec 2026* |
| Half-capital family · DK RO FI · quiz vs livestreaming | |||||
| C · half capital, no quiz/LS | €61m (16+30+15) | DK RO FI | €50m | 8.2× | Clean |
| C+L · half capital + livestreaming | €78m (16+40+14+8) | DK RO FI + livestreaming | €72m | 9.2× | Clean |
| C+Q · half capital + quiz | €94m (16+49+18+11) | DK RO FI + quiz | €94m | 10.0× | Clean |
| C+both · half capital + quiz & LS | €76m (16+35+15+10) | DK RO FI + both | €72m | 9.5× | Dec 2026* |
| C-15 · half capital (€15m/yr) | €61m (16+15+15+15) | DK RO FI · no quiz/LS | €22m | 3.6× | Yr-end† |
Buffer reserves only against unavoidable costs (excl. discretionary marketing, livestreaming and quiz opex). A/B base marketing throttled to ~0.65 to stay fully buffer-clean under the fixed flat capital; D needs none. * = below-buffer only in the permitted Nov–Dec 2026 launch window. † C-15 (€15m/yr, capital locked to each calendar year) dips below buffer in Nov/Dec 2027 & 2028 — cash stays positive (min €1.5m); structural (can't pull capital earlier), throttling backfires. At €15m/yr only the 3-market core with no quiz/livestreaming is viable. MOIC = Y6 Full EBITDA × 10× exit ÷ total capital raised.
Where judgement overrode the model
12 of 300+ scenarios run to optimise capital allocation. The recommended plan — 8-market core + Spain (A+ES), €106m (16+30+30+30) — departs from the pure model in three deliberate places:
Test market Aug 2026 → Jan 2027, flagship after. The pure model spends less on DK — we override it because Denmark has to win for everything behind it.
The hooks that make us differentiated enough. They are product, not just marketing — so dropping either weakens the proposition.
Scenario D leads the table, but stretches the raise furthest. For a similar outcome, lower capital is the more fundable choice.
All scenario models (one Excel per scenario) — drive.google.com/…/1xRBMlJyVk8IHSZCP40I4Odji9A6OG-k0
Recommendation & key findings
Current plan with Spain. Beats B+ES (€113m) — UK dilutes. Spain's large NDP cap is the biggest reinvestment sink.
Fallback if Spain doesn't land (Canada-AB in its place) — Y6 drops ~€55m vs A+ES.
Highest absolute Y6 and best MOIC — needs €166m and all 18 markets.
- A beats B at every level — UK has the worst ROMI; capital does more in the core (A+ES €127m > B+ES €113m).
- Spain ≈ +€55m of Y6 — its large NDP cap is the biggest reinvestment sink.
- A-DK-MAX force-fills DK from Jan 2027 (RO/FI cut to fund) — builds first-market DK volume but costs ~€14m of Y6 (€58m vs €72m); buffer caps DK below max at year-ends.
- Quiz is the best growth product in the half-capital family (€94m, 10.0×); both-together doesn't pay.
- Buffer policy is the swing factor — strict clean-after-2026 on fixed flat capital throttles base marketing (~0.65) and roughly halves Y6 vs a weak-buffer / front-loaded version. D needs no throttle.
- Reinvestment into the highest-ROMI market with cap headroom is the core driver; capital, quiz/livestreaming and timing are amplifiers.
MOIC = Y6 Full EBITDA × 10× exit ÷ total capital raised. A/B base marketing throttled to stay fully buffer-clean under the fixed 30/30/30 capital (no new money, no cross-year shifts).
Reinvestment scenarios · how it works
- 8 markets (no Spain; Canada-AB in its place), driven to NDP caps.
- Spain (A+ES) would add ~€55m — its large cap absorbs far more reinvestment.
- UK (B) dilutes; A-DK-MAX = DK to cap first (validation) at ~zero Y6 cost.
- All 18 markets; ~€870m reinvested.
- Adds NG/CO/PE/GH/CA/GR/CY/LV on top of A's core.
- Best MOIC, but 50%+ more capital and execution load.
- Each growth product adds real Y6 over bare C.
- Quiz is the best product — but needs €94m, not half.
- Opex must be bridged through the 2027–28 valley — next slide.
Y6 EBITDA is set by how much excess cash is reinvested into the highest-ROMI market with cap headroom. Capital size, quiz/livestreaming and tranche timing are amplifiers. ROMI = blended ARPU ÷ CPA per market.
Quiz vs livestreaming · half-capital family · DK RO FI
Same three markets (DK · RO · FI), same reinvestment engine — only the growth product changes. Answers Mads & Dorianne's question: which product, and should we run both? All on the bug-fixed + quiz-fixed model (no phantom 2026; Mads's prize-money & NDP-floor applied).
| Growth product | Capital raised (Y1+Y2+…) | Y6 EBITDA | vs C | MOIC @10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| neither | €61m (16+30+15) | €50m | — | 8.2× |
| livestreaming | €78m (16+40+14+8) | €72m | +€22m | 9.2× |
| quiz | €94m (16+49+18+11) | €94m | +€44m | 10.0× |
| both | €76m (16+35+15+10) | €72m | +€22m | 9.5× |
Quiz beats livestreaming on both Y6 and MOIC (vs €72m · 9.2× for livestreaming). Mads's prize-money fix cut quiz opex to ~€1m/yr, so it decisively out-earns livestreaming's ~€5.5m/yr drag.
Running both is no better than livestreaming alone (€72m) and worse MOIC than quiz — the combined ~€6.5m/yr opex starves reinvestment. Both pays only at materially higher capital.
Stripped of the phantom 2026 revenue, every uplift variant needs €78–94m — the opex has to be bridged by capital through 2027–28 before the uplift matures. More than was assumed.
All four at full reinvestment, buffer-clean (Dec 2026 launch exception only). Capital differs because each product needs a different cushion to cross the 2027–28 valley (re-timed within each total — no new money). Quiz NDP floored per Mads (never falls year-over-year); prize money references full market GGR.
DK-€5m strategy · when to switch on quiz + livestreaming
Same plan — 8 markets, €30m/yr, DK held at €5m/yr from 2027 (carries DK's own quiz+livestreaming), RO/FI base reduced to fund it. Only the timing of RO/FI quiz+livestreaming changes.
| DK-€5m variant | RO/FI quiz + livestreaming | Y6 EBITDA | MOIC @10× | Buffer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A-DK5m · from start | from 2027 (market launch) | €61m | 5.8× | Clean |
| A-DK5m · phased | added only from 2029 (at scale) | €37m | 3.5× | Clean |
Running RO/FI quiz+livestreaming from the start (€61m) beats waiting until 2029 (€37m). The uplift builds cohorts — depositors won from 2027 are mature by 2031; a 2029 start leaves only ~2 years of maturity.
"Wait until RO/FI scale" maximises per-period ROI — quiz/livestreaming does run at a loss on sub-scale markets in 2027–28. But those early losses are absorbed by the buffer, and on the 6-year Y6 endpoint the early-started cohorts dominate.
DK at €5m/yr from 2027 runs ~2,279 NDP/mo and €36.6m DK Y6 GGR — enough scale to carry DK's own quiz+livestreaming opex. RO/FI base cut to fund it; buffer stays clean (trim 0.60).
8 markets, flat €30m/yr (16+30+30+30), DK €5m/yr from 2027 (held), RO/FI base reduced. Quiz+livestreaming on DK from start in both; only RO/FI timing differs. Both buffer-clean after Dec 2026. The phased case improves 2027–28 interim ROI/cash but sacrifices ~€24m of Y6 cohort maturity.
Scenario A · current, no Spain · €30m/yr · Y6 EBITDA €72m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 2.7 | 7.4 | 21.4 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 95 | 4.2% |
| FI | 0.0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 39 | 3.4% |
| DK | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 26 | 3.7% |
| PT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 15.3 | 42 | 1.6% |
| SE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 22.2 | 32 | 1.1% |
| ZA | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 32.2 | 56 | 0.8% |
| IE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 11 | 0.4% |
| CA-AB | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 10.3 | 14.2 | 30 | 0.3%* |
| Total | 0 | 8 | 27 | 61 | 91 | 143 | 331 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario A-DK-MAX · current · DK to cap from Jan 2027 (RO/FI cut to fund) · Y6 EBITDA €58m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 14.2 | 29.4 | 31.8 | 80 | 3.8% |
| FI | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 27 | 2.5% |
| DK | 0.6 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 39 | 4.4% |
| PT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 15.3 | 43 | 1.7% |
| SE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 22.2 | 29 | 1.0% |
| ZA | 0.0 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 29.9 | 60 | 0.8% |
| IE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 8 | 0.3% |
| CA-AB | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 14.2 | 24 | 0.2%* |
| Total | 1 | 9 | 27 | 57 | 80 | 137 | 311 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario A-DK5m · current · DK €5m/yr + quiz+livestreaming from start (RO/FI reduced) · Y6 EBITDA €61m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 1.5 | 6.8 | 20.7 | 31.6 | 31.8 | 92 | 4.2% |
| FI | 0.0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 24 | 2.3% |
| DK | 0.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 23 | 2.6% |
| PT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 15.3 | 43 | 1.7% |
| SE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 22.2 | 34 | 1.2% |
| ZA | 0.0 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 31.8 | 55 | 0.8% |
| IE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 8.8 | 10 | 0.3% |
| CA-AB | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 31 | 0.3%* |
| Total | 0 | 9 | 27 | 58 | 84 | 134 | 313 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario A+ES · current + Spain · €30m/yr (recommended) · Y6 EBITDA €127m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 2.7 | 8.3 | 24.7 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 99 | 4.3% |
| FI | 0.0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 39 | 3.4% |
| DK | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 27 | 3.8% |
| ES | 0.0 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 13.6 | 45.0 | 55.1 | 119 | 4.4% |
| PT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 15.3 | 36 | 1.4% |
| SE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 6.1 | 22.2 | 30 | 1.1% |
| ZA | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 32.5 | 57 | 0.9% |
| IE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 10.9 | 13 | 0.5% |
| Total | 0 | 9 | 31 | 71 | 124 | 186 | 421 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario B · current + UK · no Spain · Y6 EBITDA €61m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 2.7 | 6.6 | 20.8 | 31.5 | 31.8 | 93 | 4.2% |
| FI | 0.0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 39 | 3.4% |
| DK | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 26 | 3.7% |
| PT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 9.7 | 13.5 | 15.3 | 40 | 1.6% |
| SE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 22.2 | 30 | 1.1% |
| ZA | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 31.2 | 54 | 0.8% |
| IE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 9 | 0.3% |
| UK | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 7 | 0.0% |
| CA-AB | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 8.2 | 14.2 | 27 | 0.3%* |
| Total | 0 | 8 | 25 | 59 | 85 | 146 | 324 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario B+ES · current + Spain + UK · Y6 EBITDA €113m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 2.7 | 7.5 | 23.6 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 97 | 4.3% |
| FI | 0.0 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 39 | 3.4% |
| DK | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 27 | 3.8% |
| ES | 0.0 | 0.4 | 5.2 | 12.0 | 40.8 | 55.1 | 113 | 4.2% |
| PT | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 15.3 | 35 | 1.4% |
| SE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 22.2 | 30 | 1.0% |
| ZA | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 32.5 | 56 | 0.8% |
| IE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 10.5 | 11 | 0.4% |
| UK | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 7 | 0.0% |
| Total | 0 | 9 | 30 | 69 | 117 | 191 | 416 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario C · half capital · no quiz / no livestreaming · Y6 EBITDA €50m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 21.7 | 28.8 | 31.8 | 92 | 3.4% |
| FI | 0.0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 13.3 | 42 | 3.0% |
| DK | 0.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 9.6 | 21 | 1.9% |
| Total | 1 | 15 | 10 | 32 | 43 | 55 | 155 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario C+L · half capital · livestreaming only · Y6 EBITDA €72m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 16.1 | 14.2 | 29.4 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 123 | 4.3% |
| FI | 0.0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 52 | 4.1% |
| DK | 0.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 30 | 3.5% |
| Total | 1 | 27 | 24 | 44 | 55 | 55 | 205 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario C+Q · half capital · quiz only · Y6 EBITDA €94m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 27.4 | 30.5 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 153 | 4.8% |
| FI | 0.0 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 62 | 4.3% |
| DK | 0.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 42 | 3.8% |
| Total | 1 | 44 | 48 | 55 | 55 | 55 | 257 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario C+both · half capital · quiz + livestreaming · Y6 EBITDA €72m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 22.9 | 31.3 | 31.8 | 106 | 4.3% |
| FI | 0.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 48 | 4.2% |
| DK | 0.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 26 | 3.4% |
| Total | 1 | 25 | 14 | 33 | 51 | 55 | 180 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario C-15 · half capital · €15m/yr · no quiz/livestreaming · Y6 EBITDA €22m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 14.4 | 18.7 | 30.7 | 70 | 2.6% |
| FI | 0.0 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 36 | 2.3% |
| DK | 0.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 5.1 | 13 | 0.8% |
| Total | 1 | 11 | 10 | 24 | 27 | 46 | 118 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).
Scenario D · aggressive capital (Max TAM) · €50m/yr · all markets · Y6 EBITDA €305m
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 0.0 | 8.5 | 28.3 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 132 | 4.9% |
| FI | 0.0 | 6.6 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 60 | 4.9% |
| DK | 0.6 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 38 | 4.4% |
| ES | 0.0 | 9.8 | 14.4 | 50.6 | 55.1 | 55.1 | 185 | 6.0% |
| PT | 0.0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 16.3 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 53 | 1.8% |
| SE | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 12.9 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 61 | 2.1% |
| ZA | 0.0 | 2.7 | 10.7 | 16.1 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 94 | 1.4% |
| IE | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 26 | 1.1% |
| UK | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 16 | 0.1% |
| Market | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | Y6 | 6yr | Y6 mkt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 7 | 3.8% |
| LV | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 7 | 3.0% |
| NG | 0.0 | 1.8 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 41 | 2.1% |
| CO | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 35 | 3.6% |
| GH | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 10 | 0.7% |
| GR | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 40 | 1.6% |
| CA-AB | 0.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 46 | 0.4%* |
| PE | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 25 | 0.9% |
| CA-ON | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 41.8 | 50.7 | 99 | 0.7%* |
| Total | 1 | 46 | 99 | 213 | 304 | 313 | 975 |
Annual aggregation of monthly model output (P&L Consolidated). Investment = CPA acquisition spend by market. Full-reinvestment variant, opex in EBITDA, buffer-clean after Dec 2026. Market share vs H2 Global All Product (Euro) 2031e. *Canada share shown vs national interactive GGR (provinces not split in H2).